Everyone wants to buy gold. Gold is the ultimate global currency. US Dollar used to be pegged to gold before 1973. But with the collapse of the Bretton Woods System that year, US Dollar was unpegged from gold. It became a freely floating currency. Free floating for a currency means the value of the currency is determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand.
Now US Dollar is only backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government. Most of the currencies in the world are free floating now. Many countries are also purchasing gold in the open markets as a hedge of their foreign reserves most of which are in US Dollar. In the present financial crisis with the global economy in recession, many investors are trying to take refuge in gold as the ultimate safe haven of their wealth from financial turmoil.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is known for its strong correlation with gold prices among the different currencies in the world. This correlation is due to fact that Australia has gold deposits and exports gold. On the other hand, USD has an inverse relationship with gold prices. Gold prices rise, USD falls in value. This causes the currency pair AUD/USD to appreciate in value when gold prices rise.
The opposite of this is also true. When USD gains value, gold usually loses value. The pair AUD/USD depreciates as a result. So when gold prices are rising, we can trade AUD/USD currency pair long. Likewise, when gold falls in value, we can trade AUD/USD short. This relationship may be due to the fact that gold is considered to be the ultimate safe haven of their wealth by investors in times of financial crisis. This relationship provides us with a method that we can use to take advantage of the fundamental factors that influence the currency markets.
How do you follow gold in currency trading? We now know that AUD/USD pair reacts strongly to gold prices. So we will trade AUD/USD based on following gold. Entering a trade to follow gold is a three step process. Use RSI (Relative Strength Index) as the technical indicator to trigger the trade. If you have read the previous article on following oil in currency trading, we had used the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) to trade USD/CAD pair.
When both gold and oil are commodities, why is that we are now using RSI instead of CCI? It all depends on how quickly the two indicators react to volatility. CCI gives a quicker signal. This is good for relatively less volatile pairs. Whereas RSI gives slower signals, this is ideal for more volatile pairs like AUD/USD.
You should use a moving average to confirm if gold is in an uptrend or a downtrend. You will use the seven periods RSI on AUD/USD chart. Watch the RSI chart when it enters one of its reversal zones, then move back out of the reversal zone in the same direction as the gold is trending.
Enter a long trade on AUD/USD if the gold prices are rising and the RSI is crossing back above the 30 line. On the other hand, enter a short trade on AUD/USD pair if the gold prices are declining and the RSI is crossing below the 70 line.
Set a limit order of 200 pips and a stop loss order of 50 pips for the trade. This gives a risk to reward ratio of 50/200=1/4. This risk to reward ratio is good. The chances are you are going to make 200 pips that means $2000 profit if the trade goes as you had anticipated. And if the trade does not go in your favor, 50 pips stop loss means a $500 loss. It is not uncommon to have a trade go against you only to find yourself right back in trade that goes your way after sometime.
Related posts:
- Why Trade Exotic Currency Options?
- Risk to Reward Ratio in Currency Trading
- Trading Price Action In Forex Markets
- Why The Foreign Exchange Market Is Different From The Stock Market Article
- Know More About Forex Brokers
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